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"Heated oceans driving cyclones” - Experts say marine heatwave behind escalating tropical cyclone threat

Satellite image from the Bureau of Meteorology shows Tropical Cyclone Zelia over the coast of Western Australia

As the Pilbara prepares for a terrifying Category 5 tropical cyclone to make landfall today, the second major cyclone in less than a month, WA’s peak environment body and a world-renowned climate scientist have blamed fossil fuel extraction driving a climate crisis that caused an extreme marine heatwave feeding these escalating weather events.

WA’s north west has seen highly elevated ocean temperatures 4-5 degrees above normal in recent months, an extreme marine heatwave expected to endure for several more months, with meteorologists explaining that warm sea temperatures have fed the rapid expansion of Cyclone Zelia to an intense Category 5 storm.

Mia Pepper, the Campaigns Director at the Conservation Council of WA, said:

“This is the second intense tropical cyclone in less than a month and comes in the midst of an extreme marine heatwave off our north west coast. The two disasters are inextricably linked, and they have man-made causes. We are fervently praying for a safe outcome for all our friends in the Pilbara this week. 

“Many remote towns and communities are already suffering from unreliable and expensive power, food and housing, despite the great resource wealth this country contains. While people living in the Pilbara pay more to keep the lights on, feed their families and keep a roof over their heads, they are the victims of increasing extreme weather events. Heatwaves make living conditions increasingly impossible, and mega storms like the terrifying Cyclone Zelia are directly linked to elevated ocean temperatures.

“It is a tragic irony that both this category 5 cyclone and a category 3 cyclone last month have focused their greatest force near Woodside’s Burrup Hub, the largest gas plant in the Southern Hemisphere, which the WA government just approved until 2070, by which time it would emit 6 billion tonnes of CO2.

“WA’s oceans are the new frontline in the escalation of a climate crisis being driven by fossil fuel extraction. WA’s emissions continue to rise and the WA government continues to approve and expand gas production, flying in the face of climate science and warnings. It’s critical that the next WA government phases out fossil fuels and passes laws to limit climate pollution in line with international obligations - to do otherwise risks the lives and livelihoods of West Australians.”

Bill Hare, the CEO of Climate Analytics and a lead author of previous IPCC reports, said:

“Global warming is driving an increase not only in the number of the most intense tropical cyclones, but they will become more intense, cover a larger area and spin up a lot faster.  Tropical cyclone Zelda is projected to jump from category two to category five in about 24 hours.

“High tropical sea surface temperatures provide more energy for tropical cyclones and their formation. The most intense categories of tropical cyclones appear to be occurring more frequently, and are predicted to occur more frequently with higher sea surface temperatures driven by global warming. Tropical cyclones also appear to be increasing in size, so more areas of land are subject to the most extreme rainfall when they cross onto the land.

If human-induced warming continues because fossil fuels are not phased out, marine heat wave intensity, duration and extent will continue accelerating until much of the tropical Indian ocean is in an almost permanent marine heatwave. This will only increase the frequency of these life-threatening extreme weather disasters.”

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